So, the market has fallen 2517 points in 4 days, going straight down. Lovely price action, very easy to navigate if you are a position trader. These are the days you hope for! That being said, I had a losing day yesterday. I have not traded well and taken chances where I should have waited.
I had FOMO. And this still is my greatest flaw, because I am afraid I will miss the move. And I put on trades even on subpar trade signals. That being said, I think I acted professionally, and I wasn’t too distraught about the losses. I worked on overcoming my problem, but I did ignore the fact that I was trading a trading range day.
The market pierced through the 786% level but only slightly, reversed and managed to close right on the level. It has managed to overbalance the last two major corrections, which leaves us with only one correction to go. If we surpass this correction, which is only 441 points away, and sits right next to Tue 14 Oct low, the market has turned, and it can no longer be called strong. So, let’s wait and see on this.
The 3-day trend is still down, and the 50% or balance point is short-term bearish.
Going down to 1 hr chart, if the market wants to go up, it needs to go above the 1:1 with the last correction and stay above that level. If it wants to go down, it will meet strong support at the 45,452 low, coupled with the 1:1. Right now, the market looks bearish, but going above 46,431, the 1:1 up and 46,495 resistance spells a rethink of the situation
I will trade the 3 min chart. The ATR is 632 points right now, which means we have 632 points at our disposal in order to make some profit.
The market has opened unchanged. 18 min have passed, and I have found some geometry. We have a 1:1 with the last correction in 618% with a double bottom pullback (DB/PB) reversal pattern. I will take a trade here, going long 3 points above the 14:45 bar and a stop 3 points below the low of the day
I almost got stopped out, and by sheer luck, I was not taken out. But the trade is working nicely so far. I have moved my stop to breakeven, and I have my eye on the high of yesterday as a possible exit target. I’ll just have to wait and see
And I have been stopped out on breakeven. Frustrating!
I have another buy signal. The market has made an ABCD in 786%, you can call it a Gartley even. And it has given me a DB/PB buy signal pattern. So, I am going long here. I am in a trading range, and this feels more risky than usual. Just a thought!
Stopped out again. This time, a losing trade!
I am selling 3 points below the 17:03 bar with a stop 3 points above because it has reversed in 382%, and the open price area
It hasn’t gone through. I will delete the order and go long here
Stopped out again!
I seem to be out of sync with the market. I will buy here because of the ABCD in a double bottom, and we are at the bottom of the trading range.
I will buy the breakout and move first stop at breakeven. We have strong resistance here with the 382% open and the previous high. I feel some fear because I added too close to it
I will move the stop to breakeven on the add
Stopped out of the add, but I still have my original trade. The market has moved down to support, and the 382% of today’s range and then continued to move up
I am buying again on this false break in 50%
I have been stopped out of both of my trades on breakeven. I will stop trading. Another losing day!
I have two losing trades -151 points, and 4 breakeven trades. Disappointing, but that’s what it is
Hmm, it seems I’ve quit too soon. We had a false break at the bottom of the trading range, followed by a very nice rally. False breaks can be very good signals, but I missed it this time
