What You’ll Learn in This Post
- How emotions affect trading decisions
- Why good setups can still fail
- How to recognise when not to trade
- The impact of losses on execution
In this Dow Jones trading journal, I break down a losing session where multiple setups appeared, but emotional decision-making and lack of clarity led to poor execution.
This post is designed to help traders understand that losing days are not just about strategy — they are about psychology, discipline, and timing.
MARKET CONTEXT
Date: Tuesday, 18th November 2025
Market: Dow Jones (YM)
Condition: Strong bearish momentum
Ok, so Monday, the 18th of Nov 2025, the Dow Jones cash market has continued to decline. We have now closed on the 618% retracement from Tue 14 Oct low to Wed 12 Nov high, and we have breached the low of Fri 07 Nov. The market has fallen very quickly. Faster than it went up. But that’s how markets react when they are sold.
The 3-day trend is down, and the 50% is bearish. If we go below the low of Fri 07 Nov, we should see the market go to the 786% level. The 3-day high is at 48,233, which means we have a ways to go before we turn bullish, another bearish connotation
PRE-MARKET ANALYSIS
Going down to 1hr and 15 min time frames, I can see we have made a double bottom breakout and also exceeded the ABCD from Monday’s price action.
This suggests a continuation. But the market also stopped at a major double bottom in 618% retracement, coupled with a 1.618 expansion from Monday’s high. If we keep above these levels, I would like to be a buyer, but if we go below Monday’s low, then I would want to be a seller.
The 1:1 with the last correction is at 46,947, which is make or break (MOB) level one and the 382% of the whole move down is at 47,194, which is MOB2, and the third one would be the 50% at 47,430, where we have Monday’s high as well
FIRST PHASE – UNCLEAR CONDITIONS
The market opened with a gap down and has hit the 786% level. The slow stochastic is overbought, which suggests a sell. I will wait for more information. The ATR is 621 points, and we have already gone down to 537 points. And we have just gone below the low of the day and the 786% level. I will wait because I don’t see any reliable pattern to work with right now.
So, I’m still out of the market!
The last correction was 263 points, so the 1:1 with the last correction is at 46,211 so far. And now we have a false break, and we are above the 786% level, and a small 1-3-5 pattern
SECOND PHASE – FIRST LOSS
So, now I have a buy signal. We have had a move below the low, which has resulted in a false break. And we have a 1-3-5 pattern with a Double bottom pullback. I will buy 3 points above the 15:30 bar with a stop 3 points below it.
I have taken a very fast loss. If it goes below the low of today, I really want to be a seller, but I have to watch and see what happens
I did not sell below because I do not like the price action. I may be wrong, but when in doubt, stand aside
THIRD PHASE – HESITATION & CONFUSION
I have bought again here because the market has rallied after completing a small ABCD, which made a false break as well. I have waited for more information, and now I am buying this 16:18 bar
We have gone above the 1:1 with the last correction and have returned to test the breakout. I am tempted to buy again here, but I will wait to see if it breaks out again and then buy
I have been stopped out again. This time it hurts!
PSYCHOLOGY BREAKDOWN
My thoughts and feelings are quite conflicted right now. We do have a double bottom pullback with a bad retracement and a reversal bar pattern. But I see it’s a trading range, and the price action isn’t giving me any confidence. So, I am going to wait and not go long
Well, now the emotions come flooding in. I saw the trade, but I did not take it. The two losses earlier made me fearful and overanalyse the market, and I did not trust my judgement anymore. ‘’Funny’’ things happen when you are underwater from the start of the day. And by funny, I mean fear and pain have kicked in, and your objectivity is out the window
FINAL PHASE – EMOTIONAL TRADING
I will go with the trend buying on a breakout, but the upside I see is limited. The market is very close to resistance and the 382%
I have been stopped out again. I am not trading right, so I will stop before I do more damage to my account. I was too eager to make money, and I did not protect myself as I should have. So, I lost! Losing day today. It hurts! But tomorrow is another day
WHAT HAPPENED AFTER
What happened next was that the market went sideways for two and a half hours, then proceeded down, staging a breakout of support
There was money to be made today, but I just didn’t hack it. I will retreat and lick my wounds. My conscious mind knows that a loss is a loss, and this business is full of them. But it still hurts!
KEY LESSONS
Trading Lessons from This Session:
- Losses affect decision-making more than you realise
- Not every setup is worth trading
- When price action is unclear, stay out
- Confidence drops quickly after losses
- Discipline is more important than strategy
Dow Jones Trading Checklist
Before entering a trade, I check:
- ☐ Is the market trending or ranging?
- ☐ Is there a clear pattern (ABCD, DB, false break)?
- ☐ Are Fibonacci levels aligned?
- ☐ Am I trading with clarity, not emotion?
- ☐ Am I trying to recover losses?
If these are not aligned → no trade